Like a relationship that seems so right but suddenly sputters, health care reform appears to be on the rocks.
Blame it on the Democrats for dithering away an entire year of momentum on the wave of Obama's win.
Credit the Tea Party activists for voicing the objector’s objections, even if most of them had nothing to do with health reform.
Blame it on Obama for not holding Congress's feet to the fire to pass a bill by year-end.
Or, blame it on the new kid on the block, the svelte new Republican Senator from Massachusetts—Scott Brown—the one-time Cosmo boy candy who posed nude and trumpeted his two daughters as "available" at his acceptance speech Tuesday night (drawing ire even from conservative Glenn Beck who suggested a chastity belt for Brown).
His very presence in Washington seems to have upset the balance and derailed Democratic momentum, even before he's sworn in.
Touchdown for the Republicans
Brown succeeded in spoiling the Democrat's party by doing the almost unthinkable: winning the late Ted Kennedy's seat in the deep, deep Blue state of Massachusetts where just 12% of the voters are registered Republicans.
"Forty-one! Forty-one!”
If you saw Brown accepting his win, you heard the crowd shouting "Forty-one!" They weren't cheering for George H. W. Bush, they were chanting joyously over the number of seats now held by Republicans in the Senate.
Brown’s newly minted golden seat gives Republicans the game-time advantage on health care reform and beyond. With it they can filibuster (talk/debate) to their heart's content and stall legislation, and the Democrats can't do a thing about it.
Rules of the filibuster mandate a three-fifths majority consensus to stop it (called cloture). In the Senate that's 60 votes, and the Democrats just lost that majority. Score one for the underdogs!
The likely health care scenarios
- Nothing happens: Speaker Pelosi says she doesn’t see the votes in the House to pass the Senate’s version of the bill, the preferred path by the White House and likely the fastest.
- Filibuster: A merged bill between the House and Senate could result in a filibuster in the Senate, delaying the legislation indefinitely.
- Smaller bill: A scaled-back version that focuses on insurance reform and more coverage could emerge.
The Big Picture
The Democrat’s honeymoon period is over. They still have the majority advantage, at least until the November elections, but they’re feeling sidelined. Republicans have the new boyfriend and are all fired up. The clock is ticking in the final quarter for health care, and Democrats are looking for a rally.
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