DiscussionDIVAS

Touchdown for Republicans

Like a relationship that seems so right but suddenly sputters, health care reform appears to be on the rocks. 

Blame it on the Democrats for dithering away an entire year of momentum on the wave of Obama's win. 

Credit the Tea Party activists for voicing the objector’s objections, even if most of them had nothing to do with health reform.

Blame it on Obama for not holding Congress's feet to the fire to pass a bill by year-end. 

Or, blame it on the new kid on the block, the svelte new Republican Senator from Massachusetts—Scott Brown—the one-time Cosmo boy candy who posed nude and trumpeted his two daughters as "available" at his acceptance speech Tuesday night (drawing ire even from conservative Glenn Beck who suggested a chastity belt for Brown).

His very presence in Washington seems to have upset the balance and derailed Democratic momentum, even before he's sworn in. 

Touchdown for the Republicans
Brown succeeded in spoiling the Democrat's party by doing the almost unthinkable: winning the late Ted Kennedy's seat in the deep, deep Blue state of Massachusetts where just 12% of the voters are registered Republicans. 

"Forty-one! Forty-one!”
If you saw Brown accepting his win, you heard the crowd shouting "Forty-one!" They weren't cheering for George H. W. Bush, they were chanting joyously over the number of seats now held by Republicans in the Senate.

Brown’s newly minted golden seat gives Republicans the game-time advantage on health care reform and beyond. With it they can filibuster (talk/debate) to their heart's content and stall legislation, and the Democrats can't do a thing about it. 

Rules of the filibuster mandate a three-fifths majority consensus to stop it (called cloture). In the Senate that's 60 votes, and the Democrats just lost that majority. Score one for the underdogs!

The likely health care scenarios

• Nothing happens: Speaker Pelosi says she doesn’t see the votes in the House to pass the Senate’s version of the bill, the preferred path by the White House and likely the fastest.
• Filibuster: A merged bill between the House and Senate could result in a filibuster in the Senate, delaying the legislation indefinitely.
• Smaller bill: A scaled-back version that focuses on insurance reform and more coverage could emerge.

The Big Picture
The Democrat’s honeymoon period is over. They still have the majority advantage, at least until the November elections, but they’re feeling sidelined. Republicans have the new boyfriend and are all fired up. The clock is ticking in the final quarter for health care, and Democrats are looking for a rally.

Looking ahead to 2010

2010 Census We’ll get a fresh look at U.S. demographics with the 2010 Census, which will count same-sex couples for the first time. The Census results influence Congressional districts and funds going to government-funded services like schools. As a side benefit, new census readers will mean an injection of about 1.2 million temporary jobs into the economy. The Year of the Tiger No, not that Tiger! (For good or bad, 2009 was his year.) Rather, the 2010 Year of the Tiger refers to the Chinese New Year, which begins on February 14 (it changes each year based on the moon). The tiger is one of 12 animals associated with the Chinese lunar calendar, with each bringing certain characteristics to the year. Think courage in the year of the Tiger. Estate tax Unless you fall into the 0.2% of America’s wealthiest people, this won’t apply to you, but you’ll hear a lot about it in the news. In a nutshell, prior to 2010, big estates were subject to an estate tax of 45% on assets above $3.5 million. But after nine years of phasing out the tax under a law passed by Congress in 2001, the estate tax—or “death tax” as Republicans like to call it—completely disappears. The Wall Street Journal reports some wealthy Americans were clinging to life to avoid the taxes by passing away in 2010. The reprieve only lasts a year. In 2011, the tax increases to 55% on assets over $1 million. Congress will likely take up the issue in 2010. Roth IRA conversions

December zingers: Avatar, record number of women win Nobel prize

Every December we round up a few factoids—zingers—from the week to throw out at the holiday parties. Here goes:

The movie Avatar cost in the neighborhood of $300 million and may be the most expensive film ever made
Complete with blue people who speak a language made up specifically for the film, Avatar is a 3D, digital extravaganza about a paralyzed soldier who escapes to a fantastical planet called Pandora (the blue people have tails). The movie took four years to produce and new cameras were invented to film it. Whose baby is this? James Cameron’s—director of the highest grossing film ever, Titanic. So, he has a track record! The film launches Dec. 18 and so far the early reviews are good.

Twenty-one million people are “underbanked”
Under what? Underbanked, says the FDIC, which estimates that about 21 million people who don’t have bank accounts use alternative forms of banking, say a check cashing service or a payday loan shop, all which take hefty fees. About 9 million don’t have bank accounts at all, with minorities and low-income people making up the majority of these groups. The FDIC works with banks to try to get some of these folks banking services.

Casual sex is not so damaging on the psyche
Young, unattached adults engaging in casual sex aren’t at “increased risk for harmful psychological outcome compared to those in more committed relationships.” That’s according to a new study publishes in a health journal from the Guttmacher Institute. The paper apparently refutes abstinence only teachings that warn that casual sex is hard emotionally, and says the focus should be on safe sex. The Onion, however, claims it’s only rewarding “for the first few decades.”

Five women accepted the Nobel Peace Prize in Sweden, the most ever
Since 1901, 822 Nobel prizes have been awarded and just 40 women have won during that time—five of them this year. One of them, American Elinor Ostrom, was the first woman to win the prize for economics.

Free mammograms: Women's health in reform

You might have thought that all the sports news this week revolved around Tiger Woods and his “transgressions.” 

But of course politics is something of a sport as well, and there was plenty of gamesmanship on display this week, from President Obama’s decision to both send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan and outline a timeline for withdrawal by 2011; to reminding the American public that the government is still focused on a jobs stimulus despite everything else that's going on; to the football-like grappling in the U.S. Senate over the health reform bill.

Senators locked horns over costs, and also women’s health—namely, mammograms.

Free mammograms
A couple weeks ago a government panel said women who aren’t predisposed to breast cancer should get mammograms starting at age 50 rather than 40, setting off a firestorm. So the Senate passed an amendment to its version of the health bill (they pass many amendments to revise the bill that came out of committee beforevoting on the whole bill) that would require insurance companies to cover mammograms before age 50 and also make them—and other types of screenings and preventative services—FREE. The amendment passed 61-39.

Fear of rationing
Exactly why they should be free and not subject to some kind of a co-pay is not entirely clear. 

Cash for caulkers

How about some cash in return for weatherizing your home? Or a job? How about both?

It’s the latest idea circulating in Washington—government cash incentives to encourage you to plug up those drafty houses, insulate them, and switch to efficient light bulbs.

If the title “cash for caulkers” rings like “cash for clunkers,” that’s the point. The clunkers program was wildly successful, with almost 700,000 (lots of Ford Explorers), turned in. Car sales shot up. (We’ll note that the DIVA-mobile, a 1994 Volvo, did not qualify as a clunker.) 

Two birds with one stone
 “Cash for caulkers” is the brainchild of one of Silicon Valley’s most prominent venture capitalists, John Doerr. As described by the New York Times, the program could reduce energy usage and costs, and also create jobs—for the caulkers! This particular program would cost $23 billion over two years, though no word on exactly how it would be paid for (assume taxes).

And while the environmental element is a nice bonus—climate talks are building heading ahead of the crucial Copenhagen summit next month—job creation is on everybody’s mind in Washington these days. 

Looking for a lifeline...

The roundup: Headlines of note from the week

Monday: Sarah Palin on Oprah

If you missed Sarah Palin launching her book tour on Oprah, you've certainly heard about it. Her new book, ‘Going Rogue,’ is the number one best seller.

Tuesday: When to mammogram
A new report sparked confusion and controversy over when and how often to get a mammogram, recommending age 50 for regular screening, not 40. But Health and Human Services asked people to stay the course and urged earlier screenings. The CDC says 41,000 women and 375 men die from breast cancer each year. 

Wednesday: Obama visits Great Wall
President Obama wrapped his meetings in China on trade, currency, climate and security, with a visit to the Great Wall, before heading to South Korea and then home.

Wednesday: Senate reveals health bill
The stats: $849 billion over 10 years; 31 million covered. Vote on Saturday over whether to discuss and vote on the bill.  More details.

Thursday: More Oprah
Talk show queen Oprah Winfrey says she’ll announce Friday that she’ll end her show in 2011 to focus on her new cable network, OWN, the Oprah Winfrey Network, which launches next year. Will those 7 million viewers move with her?

Friday: Changes in screenings for cervical cancer 
 New guidelines recommend starting screening at age 21, regardless of sexual activity, and get the test every two years and less frequently into their 30s if there's no history of cancer or abnormal pap smears. The report says incidence of cervical cancer is very low in teenagers. Read more.

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The Weekly DIVA: Shopping, anyone? Consumers in the driving seat

 A year ago, when all hell was breaking loose in the economy, shoppers spent 7% more at stores during the weekend following Thanksgiving than they had the year before. What a difference a year makes. Or does it?

Since last November, the market took a nose dive, then recovered by 63%. Unemployment climbed to 10.2%. People stopped spending and the savings rate shot up to 5%. 

Now, with just two weeks left to go before the holiday shopping season officially kicks off, the question is, does the consumer feel confident enough to go holiday shopping?

The “season” officially commences on Black Friday, the extravaganza shopping day on the Friday after Thanksgiving when consumers line up outside of stores hoping to take advantage of the deals and discounts. Last year a Wal-Mart employee was trampled to death in a frenzy after the store's doors opened to the public. This year Wal-Mart has taken several steps to make the experience safer, including keeping stores open from Thanksgiving into the next day instead of closing and having everyone line up outside to await the big morning open.

The forecast

Court considers juveniles and life in prison

On Nov. 9, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments against imprisoning juveniles to life in prison. The arguments came on behalf of two minors serving life sentences in Florida--one for rape and the other for armed robbery. Each committed the crimes while teenagers. 

The question the court will consider is if sentencing juveniles to life in prison violates the Eighth Amendment, which prohibits the use of "cruel and unusual punishment."

In 2005 the Supreme Court rulfed it unconstitutional to sentence juveniles to death and the hearings Monday will test if the earlier distinctions can be applied toward cases of life in prison without parole as well, particularly for cases where no one is killed. See a map of where juveniles are serving life sentences in the United States.

The tea leaves: All about economic recovery

Let’s get right down to business. August will be all about economic recovery, or at least about reading the tea leaves for signs of it.

Already a majority of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal believe the recession is over, and just this week the Federal Reserve indicated it also sees the recession coming to an end—the Fed held interest rates steady and close to nothing, meaning it’s still very inexpensive for banks to borrow money from the U.S. government.

But the Fed also said it’s going to start backing off one of the recovery programs it instituted to help get the economy in better shape, which many viewed as a positive sign about what it thinks about the economy.

Earlier news that home prices rose in July had many calling a housing bottom, meaning that prices had likely found a floor (they’re off about 30% since the peak). And the “cash for clunkers” program helped push July car sales to their first year-over-year improvement since April 2008.

Certainly the stock market is happier too, the Dow is up 45% since its March lows.

So is it all roses and full steam ahead?