The markets head into the second half of the year 25% higher than where they were in March
So that's good, yes, but don't get too excited--all said stocks are still down some 25% from their highs in 2007. The next month will be important to see where stocks go from here as U.S. public companies report how well they did or didn't do in the last three months. Expectations are that overall profit fell by 35% from last year (there's still growth on average, it's just much lower than in recent years). If they do much worse than that benchmark forecast, stocks could fall. If they do better, stocks could get a boost. But don't expect to see 14,000 again on the Dow anytime soon.
Outside of earnings, the consumer will be interesting to watch in the second half as well. In May they closed their wallets and saved at a rate of 7 percent, up from zero just about a year ago, and their confidence was weak. Consumers are getting hammered by job losses, which scares them into not spending. That's bad for the housing market because they may hold off on big purchases like a home, which as we've talked about here many times before is pivotal to the overall economic recovery. More job losses could mean more foreclosures and so on. Enough... let's get back to the party!
As the United States marks its independence and democratic freedoms this weekend, it seems especially poignant in the face of recent happenings around the world.
U.S. troops pulled out of major cities in Iraq this week, giving Iraqi forces control. How well it goes is certainly TBD but the move clearly marks a step forward in Iraqi independence.
Iran is still threatening to crack down on protesters still contesting the recent election results, and this week Honduran soldiers orchestrated a coup, crawling under a fence at the President's home and forcibly sending him into exile (in his pajamas). The president, who aligns himself with Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, was attempting to hold a referendum seeking to stay in power longer than the Constitution there allows for. The Honduran Supreme Court sanctioned the military moves and the congress appointed a new president. Juxtapose those situations with the fact that the last of the 2008 U.S. Senate races was just decided this week after recounts and legal briefs determined Al Franken the winner of that race in Minnesota by a few hundred votes.
Independence and food
So the Census Bureau estimates that some 70 million people barbeque on July 4, and that got us to wondering why Americans tend to eat the same thing on holidays. Ok, the turkey is obvious, but hot dogs? While we couldn't trace back exactly when this food became the norm (along wth burgers), we did learn that the Nathan’s Annual International July Fourth hot dog Eating Contest on Coney Island—last year’s record eater gobbled 59 in 10 minutes—dates back somewhat unofficially to 1916!
On our culinary history quest we asked Cheryl Tan, a food expert and blogger with a book on the way called "A Tiger in the Kitchen" about learning to cook from her aunts in Singapore. She says we eat the same things because it's part of the ritual: "We tend to eat the same things on holidays because it's society's way of marking an occasion. Food tends to have symbolic meaning and this is a way to give some added meaning to a special day. Marking these holidays with specific foods is also a way for families to pass down traditions from grandmother to mother, mother to daughter, in the kitchen. Too much of that is lost these days, with people being too busy to cook, much less cook with their families. Such holidays are a good way to keep some of those traditions--and recipes--alive."
We also learned a bit about her native Singapore where they don't eat the same thing on their independence day, but do at most other holidays. Singapore, though, is still very young as an independent country--it was a British Colony up until 1959. Perhaps they're still searching for their version of the hot dog.
Next week
Obama and family are off to Russia, Italy and Ghana next week, a seemingly strange itinerary. Everything from cyberspace issues to Iran and North Korea at the G8 summit in Italy to a meeting with the pope, are on the agenda.
Happy 4th, and here's to the second half of 2009! Now go have a hot dog and pass on that potato salad recipe.
Looking forward to reading all about the Obama's upcoming travels to Russia, Italy, and Ghana!
Thank you for Discussion Divas - always good information!
Posted by: Avonne Tice | July 03, 2009 at 10:05 AM