DiscussionDIVAS

A play for the Hillary vote?

Following the coronation/angst-fest of the Democrats’ fete in Denver, most people were expecting a fairly convention-al Republican gathering in Minneapolis, starting on Monday.

That all changed early Friday, when John McCain picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. With the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden building momentum, McCain lived up to his maverick image and picked an outside-the-box running mate, a political unknown who could inject even more drama into an already remarkable race.

A long shot gets the nod
Palin—who was only elected governor in 2006—was thought to be something of a dark horse in the veepstakes, behind more traditional picks like Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts and successful businessman, and Tim Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota, a rising star with working-class roots.

Depending on how you look at it, McCain’s decision to pick Palin was either a bit desperate or absolutely inspired. At 44 she brings youth to the Republican ticket (McCain turns 72 on Friday). She’s also a staunch conservative Christian, which might help McCain shore up support from the religious right—a crucial voting bloc for the GOP. What’s more, she has a reputation as a reformer and is big on oil drilling, echoing a theme that McCain has been pushing in his campaign.

Now to the obvious: she’s a she. Many see the choice of Palin as move by Republicans to siphon off some disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporters from the Democrats. Whether that will work is very debatable. She’s staunchly anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage, and a big NRA supporter, all things that won’t sit well with most Hillary voters.

The big picture
Palin of course is a historic choice, only the second woman on a major-party ticket in American history, following Geraldine Ferraro’s unsuccessful try as vice president on the Democratic ticket in 1984.

After Obama’s rousing acceptance speech Thursday night, McCain was obviously looking for something to jolt his campaign heading into the Republican convention—and only time will tell if Palin will succeed in providing that.

By this time next week, the gloves could come off—the tickets will be set with the VP nominees, often the attack dogs, in place. What’s been a relatively mild race could turn “swift boat” quickly. Already the campaign camps are taking swings: McCain’s come under fire for owning eight homes and Obama has been accused of being unpatriotic.

And we're still waiting

As we write this note, we’re still waiting for Barack Obama to name his vice presidential pick, despite weeks of speculation, false leads and outright absurd gossip. The news could come any minute now, before the Democratic National Convention kicks off on Monday.

The thing is, the VP selection dance is really all about rumors—it’s a process used to test ideas and generate buzz. And each possible candidate plays an important role in driving overall votes. So, ahead of Obama’s pick, here’s a look at the players:

The contenders
Obama is said to be seriously considering a number of potential running mates, each with different assets and baggage:

• Delaware Senator Joseph Biden would bring foreign policy experience.
• Tim Kaine is the governor of Virginia, a hugely important swing state.
• Evan Bayh is a senator from Indiana, also a large and important swing state.
• New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has strong foreign policy credentials, and would also presumably bring in the Latino vote.

Of course there’s also Obama’s former rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who could bring about 18 million votes (that’s the number she got in the primary). But she also brings plenty of controversy, including hubby Bill, who hasn’t exactly endeared himself to Obama over the past year.

Other rumored but less likely contenders include Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed (solid military man), Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (rising star in a conservative state and a female), and former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn (perennially rumored, never picked).

The Decision with a capital “D”
Although pollsters say a VP nominee rarely is a deciding factor in an election (remember Dan Quayle?), the pick represents the first important presidential decision a candidate makes. Conventional wisdom says the veep should round out the ticket, making up for some perceived shortcoming.

In Obama’s case, many say he is light on experience, and Republican rival John McCain has hammered him over foreign policy credentials. So, an older, experienced politician may join him on the ticket.

That said, he may chuck all that out the window and really surprise us. And wouldn’t that be fun (think Caroline Kennedy)?

Lots of pomp, lots of pageantry (lots of hot air)
Starting Monday we’ll get back-to-back weeks of conventions. The Democrats host theirs Monday through Thursday in Denver followed by the Republicans in Minneapolis. No actual news ever comes out of these things—they’re mainly an excuse to introduce the candidate (and VP) and fire up the troops. Oh, and maybe party a bit too.

The big picture
Party conventions signal the start of the stretch run of the presidential campaign, when voters really start paying attention and making up their minds. Typically candidates enjoy a so-called post-convention “bounce” in the polls, meaning their favorability surges. Campaigns hope the bounce is big enough to propel a candidate to victory in November. Right now, the polls show a race that is too close to call. Who will get the bigger bounce coming out of the conventions? Pull up a seat and watch!

Georgia-Russia conflict explained

Although the conflict between the Republic of Georgia and its northern neighbor Russia is taking place far away, the clash is unnerving, conjuring up images of the Cold War and signaling a new Russian aggressiveness. Here’s a brief explanation of what’s happening:

The unhappy breakup—background on the conflict
With just 4.5 million people, Georgia is one of 13 countries that became independent when the Soviet Union fell in 1991. It’s strategically located in the Caucasus region, at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, and its relations with Russia have been tense in the past. (See our “Lessons from Borat” posting on former Soviet countries.)

The current conflict arose from a region of Georgia called South Ossetia, which has long clamored for its own independence and found support from Russia.

The news
Late last week after multiple skirmishes in the region, Georgian troops launched an offensive against South Ossetian separatists. Russia quickly joined the fight on behalf of the separatists, in part to assert its power but also to spite the U.S., which supports the democratic government of Georgia. Their forces overwhelmed the Georgians and pushed out of South Ossetia into Georgia proper. Despite a cease-fire agreement reached earlier this week, Russian troops remain in Georgia and the outcome is uncertain.

Implications beyond the region—why this conflict matters
This is not your average regional spat—the conflict has major implications for the global balance of power. Georgia was loudly and proudly allied with the United States, which sponsored the tiny country for membership in NATO. This angered Russia, which is not a part of NATO (a military alliance), and considers its membership a security threat. The U.S., the Europeans and other former Soviet states such have all sided with Georgia in the current conflict, calling on Russia to withdraw.

Oil is also a big part of the story. Georgia is located near the Caspian Sea, an important oil and gas producing region that feeds Europe. The U.S. successfully backed a recently completed pipeline running through Georgia—deliberately skirting Russia—in an effort to keep Moscow from having too much control over energy resources. Once again, this angered Russia.

The big picture
More than anything, the war in Georgia seems to reflect Russia’s determination to reassert itself as a world power. Ten years ago the country was in shambles, reeling from the hangover left by decades of socialist rule. Thanks to high oil prices, Russia is now flush with money, confident and willing to flex its political and military muscles. 

Moreover, no one is exactly itching to confront Moscow, mainly because Europe is so reliant on Russia for oil and natural gas. And the U.S. already has its hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan, so there’s not much America can do for its ally Georgia other than protest. The U.S. may have some economic and diplomatic influence, but it's a delicate situation as Russia is key to another delicate situation with Iran. For now, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice—an expert in Russian politics—is in the region to help broker a solution.

China under the microscope

If you saw the American athletes arriving in Beijing this week donning scary-looking face masks to keep the city’s famous pollution from corroding their finely-tuned lungs, then you probably got a feel for just how political these 2008 Summer Olympics promise to be.

Of course that’s not new news—-in the run up to the Games we’ve heard plenty about China’s environmental woes and serious human rights issues. But there’s a ton more to this vast, fascinating country, and we have a brief primer for you.

The population problem
One of the world’s oldest civilizations, China is also the most populous—with 1.33 billion people it makes up about one-fifth of the world’s population. To stem its booming population, the government introduced the strict, somewhat controversial “one-child” family planning program in 1979, leading to 400 million fewer people today. However, as a result, China is also one the world’s most rapidly aging countries.

Despite many areas of intense, grinding poverty, life expectancy is 73 years (compared with 78 years in the U.S) and the literacy rate is 91%.

Religious “freedom”
You may have seen the news that President Bush will be worshiping Sunday at a “government sanctioned” Christian church. The issue here is that while China’s Communist government is officially atheist, it allows just five “registered” religions and limits how many people can join those churches. Other unregistered churches may be reportedly repressed. Surveys show tens or even hundreds of millions of Buddhists, Taoists, and lesser numbers of Catholics, Protestants and Muslims live in China.    

The Asian economic tiger
China has been ruled for nearly 60 years by a Communist government but starting in late 1970s, the government instituted a series of liberal market-oriented reforms, introducing private ownership, encouraging free enterprise and opening the economy to foreign trade. The result is something of a paradox: a vibrant but tightly-controlled, capitalist economy. China’s economy has been surging at a torrid pace for years, growing more than 11% in 2007. Its economy is now the second largest in the world, behind only the United States.

Of particular note to many Americans, China also holds a lot of our debt, owning more than a half trillion dollars worth of U.S. treasury securities. This is second only to Japan.

About that pollution …
All that economic growth–-think factories and coal-fired power plants belching out smoke and fouling the waters—has led to serious, dangerous environmental issues. The World Bank says China has 20 of the world's 30 most polluted cities, mostly because of coal use and cars. A recent article in The New Yorker says the country adds about four coal-fired plants each month!

The big picture
China wants to win the gold medal count this year. In 2004 it came in second to the U.S. tally of 36. Since being awarded the Olympics, China’s sports ministry has been on a mission to identify potential athletes, sending them to state-run sports academies for training. They’re particularly focused on events such as rowing and canoeing where high medal counts might help knock Americans from the top spot.

China also wants to showcase itself to the world as newly modern, dynamic, and somewhat more open. Although press freedoms are already being curtailed, and the government is not likely to tolerate any real protesters, the new “Bird’s Nest” National Stadium, and the “Water Cube” National Aquatics Center have already been hailed as architectural marvels. It is this face that China wants the world to see.

Of fat and fuel: What is trans fat?

While one use of hydrogen is being widely touted as an alternative way to fuel your car, another use of it became illegal in the last week in California—trans fats.

Yes, those pesky trans fats we hear so much about, and probably know annecdotally that they are bad for us, are actually oils pumped with hydrogen to create a more flavorful, longer-lasting oil with which to cook and bake. They’re also called partially hydrogenated oils. Think Crisco. Think margarine and fast food. Think bad. (It’s okay to sigh here, wishing away things that taste good.

The problem with trans fats is that they actually lower levels of “good cholestrol” and increase levels of “bad cholesterol” and thus increase the risk of coronary heart disease. Two years ago the U.S. required they be listed on nutrition labels. They’re different from saturated fats, which come mainly from animals but also some plants (these also cause high cholesterol).

The California way
California is making an all-out assault on unhealthy food. Last Friday the state banned the use of trans fats in all restaurants and, on Wednesday, Los Angeles barred any new fast-food restaurants from opening in South L.A., a low-income area of the city. Poor people are disproportionately overweight.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger—body builder turned actor turned politician—signed the state ban on trans fats, which will take effect in 2010. Interestingly, the Food and Drug Administration says the biggest source of transfats in adults comes from packaged baked sweets—cookies, cakes, pies, etc,. and says the average daily adult intake of trans fats is 5.8 grams.

New York gets in on the action
In May New York City passed a law requiring big chain fast-food restaurants to post calorie counts next to menu items. Most began complying earlier this week. The city banned trans fats at restaurants two years ago.

But obesity rates are still rising
Just recently the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that obesity rates ticked up about 2% from 2005, qualifying a quarter of the U.S. population as obese. Obesity means a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or above. (We wrote about the difference between overweight and obese last year.) Mississippi has the highest obesity rate, while Southern states overall rated as the heaviest; Colorado ranks the leanest.

The big picture
While their intent is simply to improve citizens’ health, these laws raise serious questions about just how involved the government should be in policing health habits. Perhaps the fact that U.S. health care costs are expected to double to $4 trillion in just eight years and that over 60% of Americans are overweight or obese, is reason enough to try a more radical approach. And the U.S. is certainly not alone. In Japan, the government is trying to police waistlines to make people qualify for health insurance.

But perhaps one area we need to spend more time addressing is the link between poverty and obesity. Southern states, where more people are overweight, have higher poverty rates. And as food costs soar, some argue that high prices of food will only to add to America’s waistlines.

Read how the May Clinic defines trans fats.
Check your BMI.
The CDC has an amazing graphic that shows the progression of Obesity rates in the United States since 1992. It’s worth looking taking a look.
The American Heart Association breaks down the differences in fats.

Comment: How would you address obesity in the United States?